China's Future (2020)

China's Future David L Shambaugh China s Future China s future is arguably the most consequential question in global affairs Having enjoyed unprecedented levels of growth China is at a critical juncture in the development of its economy society
  • Title: China's Future
  • Author: David L Shambaugh
  • ISBN: 9781509507146
  • Page: 443
  • Format: Paperback
China's Future David L Shambaugh China s future is arguably the most consequential question in global affairs Having enjoyed unprecedented levels of growth, China is at a critical juncture in the development of its economy, society, polity, national security, and international relations The direction the nation takes at this turning point will determine whether it stalls or continues to develop and prosChina s future is arguably the most consequential question in global affairs Having enjoyed unprecedented levels of growth, China is at a critical juncture in the development of its economy, society, polity, national security, and international relations The direction the nation takes at this turning point will determine whether it stalls or continues to develop and prosper.Will China be successful in implementing a new wave of transformational reforms that could last decades and make it the world s leading superpower Or will its leaders shy away from the drastic changes required because the regime s power is at risk If so, will that lead to prolonged stagnation or even regime collapse Might China move down a liberal or even democratic path Or will China instead emerge as a hard, authoritarian and aggressive superstate In this new book, David Shambaugh argues that these potential pathways are all possibilities but they depend on key decisions yet to be made by China s leaders, different pressures from within Chinese society, as well as actions taken by other nations Assessing these scenarios and their implications, he offers a thoughtful and clear study of China s future for all those seeking to understand the country s likely trajectory over the coming decade and beyond.
China's Future David L Shambaugh

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One thought on “China's Future

  1. Trish

    This book was named among The Economist s Best Books of the Year, but if you ve ever heard that end of year podcast, you d know that list is not exactly discriminating However, I did not know that when I ordered this, and I also did not know that The Economist also named Shambaugh s 2013 China Goes Global as Best of the Year Frankly, I am not impressed, either with this book or The Economist s list.This book was actually a speech that Shambaugh had been schlepping around various outlets for a co [...]

  2. Hadrian

    The field of China Studies is littered with the corpses of those who have made wrong predictions Shambaugh knows that no one has a crystal ball to see into the future, and he knows enough to list some existing trends in Chinese politics, and a list of possible outcomes for political reform Shambaugh takes a short, yet comprehensive overview of the many policy challenges facing China today the environment, employment, the banking system, financial transparency, social services, demographics, fore [...]

  3. Nguyen Huy Tu Quan

    Trong cu n s ch n y, Shambaugh ph n t ch c c v n Kinh t , X h i, Ch nh tr v Quan h c a Trung Qu c v i Th gi i trong hi n t i, t n u ra d o n c a m nh v t ng lai Trung Qu c Cu n s ch c vi t d hi u, kh ch quan C ch l p lu n c a ng kh ng ho n to n p t m t ti n o n n o V i Shambaugh, t t c kh n ng u c th x y ra Tuy nhi n, c ng c nh ng kh n ng d x y ra h n kh n ng kh c V v y, b n c c th y n t m v cu n s ch n y N l m t cu n s ch ng c, cho ta c i nh n kh i qu t v TQ trong kho ng 40 n m tr l i y.Ngo i r [...]

  4. Nha

    T ng lai Trung Qu c ph thu c b n l a ch n c b n m David Shambaugh g i l To n tr m i si t ch t h n n a , Chuy n ch r n ti p t c nh hi n nay , Chuy n ch m m n i l ng ki m so t ho c D n ch n a v i cho tranh c t ng i t do nh ng b o m quy n l c c a ng c ng s n T c gi ph n t ch c c m t kinh t , x h i v th ch , d b o t nh h nh ph t tri n theo m i k ch b n n u tr n.

  5. Anders Hjortshøj

    David Shambaugh is a well known pessimist in debates on Chinese politics While he recognizes that it is wisest to expect the unexpected when it comes to China, he makes a convincing case that the current economic, political and social model is unsustainable in even the medium term.In less than two hundred pages, he offers a fairly accessible runthrough of China s stunning transformation since 1978, the numerous bottlenecks it currently faces, and four scenarios for its future development in itse [...]

  6. Tripp

    Excellent coverage by a long standing student of China He is measured and crisp here, so much so that the book reads like a set of graduate level course lectures which they sort of are Great way to get up to speed on what is happening there today and where they may be going in the future.

  7. The Uprightman

    Shambaugh s China s Future addresses the question at the core of modernisation theory do the forces unleashed by a market economy drive a political movement towards democracy He outlines four possible paths China future will take depending on officials appetite for reform Neo Totalitarianism, Hard Authoritarianism, Soft Authoritarianism and Semi Democracy Shambaugh uses pronouncements made in the November 2013 Third Plenum as the baseline for measuring substantive reform progress The declaration [...]

  8. Pratik Dash

    China is a sleeping giant Let her sleep, for when she wakes she will move the world Napoleon BonaparteThis haruspication of Le Emperor Napoleon turned out to be uncannily prescient in light of China s meteoric rise from an impoverished backwater and a chiefly agricultural nation in the 1950 s to its present position as an industrial and manufacturing titan, the world s largest trading power, the leading economy on PPP basis, and arguably one of the foci of the global economy.Predicated on this a [...]

  9. Hoàng Lê Đình

    Cu n s ch ng c n u b n l ng i quan t m n xu h ng s c c a th gi i trong nhi u nhi u n m n a M c d cu n s ch kh ng t p trung mi u t v i u l m

  10. Eddie Choo

    Good overview of China Author takes a good view of China Just thought that the consequences of hard authoritarianism could have been fleshed out And should also acknowledge the risks of both soft authoritarianism and semi democracy Both paths are not without risks.

  11. Andrew Carr

    Why does the public taxpayer fund academics The answer is so that scholars can write books like this.While increasing numbers of social scientists believe that we need to study the human world as we do the physical dispassionately, microscopically, and numerically Shambaugh s book is an important demonstration of the public value of scholars In this short and easily readable book, Shambaugh argues that unless the political system of China is reformed, the economic and social systems will stagnat [...]

  12. Dharma Agastia

    A timely and insightful commentary on current affairs in China from an expert who has been researching China for a long time It s not heavy in theory, as I initially expected rather, Shambaugh uses only relevant tools of analysis in political economy and international relations to provide his projection on China s future He argues that if China were to avoid decay, it would need to move to a soft authoritarian system or a semi democracy as all democracies are unique Shambaugh shows a proficient [...]

  13. Vincenzo Tagle

    David Shambaugh writes a concise overview of the economic, political, and social issues China is facing today It s brief, but its breadth makes up for the lack of depth.In summary, Shambaugh argues that without political reform, China will not be able to leave the middle income trap it is bound to approach, assuming it isn t there already Without political liberalization and structural reform, he argues that China will not be able to escape the trap by moving up the value chain and transitioning [...]

  14. Adrian

    Following on the heels of China Goes Global, Shambaugh provides an updated analysis of China s domestic and foreign policy trends and transformations over the previous years, and contends that China has several routes it can pursue, Hard Authoritarianism the current trend since 2009 , Soft Authoritarianism the direction from 1998 to 2008 , Neo Totalitarianism or Semi Democracy.Shambaugh considers semi democracy to be the most desirable, but also the least likely outcome, but contends that Hard A [...]

  15. Jim Sojourner

    A solid, short, and easy to make sense of look at where China is today and the political choices it faces.

  16. Jason Furman

    Political scientists David Shambaugh take on four possible future courses for China neo totalitarianism, hard authoritarianism which he argues is the current practice , soft authoritarianism which they had a decade ago, he argues , or neo Democracy He considers the middle two options the most likely and works through the implications in the areas of economics, politics and foreign policy in separate chapters devoted to each It demonstrates Shambaugh s lifelong study of China, thoughtfulness, and [...]

  17. 华 强

    Interesting facts 1 China is overdue for a social upheaval that it experiences every 25 to 30 years 2 From 1960 2008 only 13 out of 101 countries have successfully transitioned from being a middle income country to a higher income country 3 Since 1500, when it comes to friction between established powers and incumbent powers, 11 out of 15 cases have resulted in military conflict Interesting times ahead

  18. Mainichi66

    Many prophets gave failed forecast for China Shambaugh isn t likely one of them The information he garnered is real life and first handed the induction is well based very worthwhile for someone puzzled by the so called china conundrum.

  19. Peter

    Clear and to the point Excellent summary for those seeking to understand the key options now facing the CCP Nice to get past the China will rule the world book genre 2003 2013 Not very optimistic.

  20. Alex Lennon

    Solid exposition of Shambaugh s WSJ article and survey of the current challenges facing China Great place to start for those wanting to learn about the country and its challenges ahead.

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